Trying to figure out a pattern in Atlanta real estate based on a couple of months is like trying figuring how well you will run a marathon after just one 20-miler. You need 3 20-milers three 3 years of year-to-date comparisons to find a trend in Atlanta real estate. (FN 1) For example, during marathon training, you can have a magical run and two weeks later wonder if you ever knew how to run. In Atlanta real estate, we can see some exceptional numbers followed by a return to normal that falsely appear negative. The 3-year Atlanta real estate is best summarized – “Now Hiring Construction Workers” – at Cobb County tag office. Atlanta real estate is doing just fine. (Friends disagree about the need for three “20s”. If you are healthy and in shape, the odds remain in your favor to be healthy.)
A summary of the graphs, without actually crunching the number shows a positive trajectory of sales volume, price, and number of days a home remains on the market, specifically for Buckhead Atlanta and Vinings. Anomalies, Undoubtedly, caused some months to indicate a potential negative trend. It is a positive mirage. For example, in 2019 when you look at the average sales price, April appeared to show a drop. In actuality, March had unusually large sales price. The trend remains positive.
Buckhead Atlanta’s trends for units sold and days on market over the past three years to date (2017, 2018, 2019) remained consistent, while Vinings struggles to show a reliable pattern – 🙂 except for a dramatic increase in home values.
Buckhead Atlanta had some major spikes in 2018 with its average sale price while 2019 saw a return to
Even when you account for the large discrepancy in size between the neighborhoods, Vinings appears to remain an enigma until you understand one positive fact – people hardly leave here. Going back to the Great Recession of 2008, it was one of the last neighborhoods to have a foreclosure. Then in 2009 and 2010, homes barely moved while they did in Buckhead Atlanta. As the adage goes, when you move to Vinings, you don’t leave. (Question now for the healthy market is how many of the house owners have “temporarily” relocated for work.) 2018, compared to 2017 and 2019 year-to-date, proved to be the anomaly for Vinings market as you had three (3) months of double-digit sales – April, May, and July. 2017. My hunch is that people found Vinings – again – and want to stay for a while.
Atlanta real estate and long-standing establishments face the essential merging of the old and the new. You can thank the native long-standing Gen Xers who arrived in the mid-90s to shape modern Atlanta and thus move the city from a Southeast hub to an international one. Today, if you ask someone how long have they been in Atlanta, you say “You’re from here” if the answer is more than 20 years.
Why are the Gen Xers to be thanked? Simple, we built a unified bridge between the the old and the new. We acted on the awareness that the city was changing, but wanted to preserve the best of what attracted us to the city. Sorry Baby Boomers, you got stuck in your ways after revolutionizing the country in the ’60s and early ’70s. Thankfully, you laid the foundation for the 1990s growth. Millennials, just being technology savvy with all this increased consciousness does make you the complete authority on everything. Gen Xers opened the door for you to see why Atlanta is so attractive.
What enabled the Gen Xers build the bridge? Many of the natives and long-standing residents experienced aspects of other cities that would improve ours. Walkability, Connectivity an Mass Transit an vital urban core are things we valued. We saw the writing on the wall that the commutes from the northern suburbs to Buckhead and south would only get worse, and started acting on it, starting 20 years ago.
How has this bridge manifested itself? Look at the most prominent projects – Atlantic Station, Atlanta BeltLine, Ponce City Market, Avalon, and soon to be renamed Buckhead Atlanta. Atlantic Station started the trend in 1998, and Ryan Gravel, originally from Houston, envisioned merging the old and the new with with his BeltLine thesis at Georgia Tech. As that gained traction, Buckhead Atlanta (entertainment hub that drew many Gen Xers to Atlanta along with a booming economy) started to show some wear and in comes Ben Carter. Now Jamestown President and Buckhead native Michael Phillips wants to embrace the best of the best of both generations, as evidenced by the town hall meeting on July 24th.(1) The best is yet to come with the fundamental transformation of the Westside Atlanta, specifically the English Avenue and Vine City neighborhoods in which our generations of social consciousness merge to revitalize downtrodden neighborhoods while enabling current residents to stay there. Thank you Tom Cousins for the blue print when you went into East Lake. (1) (We needed Oliver McMillan for a while, but they they did not embrace Atlanta, as evidenced by their presentation to Urban Land Institute in 2014.)
Buckhead Atlanta House Market Is Strong – Last month I posed the question as to which market was stronger, Buckhead Atlanta or Vinings. After comparing the last two months, unequivocally, the race is even. Let’s keep track for the rest of the summer months, including October. (Here in Atlanta, we have two summer endings: 1. Kids go back to school at the beginning of August, 2. College Football begins the Thursday before Labor Day, and 3. October when we starting wearing jackets.)
Buckhead Atlanta, just by the single-family-home stats, blows away Vinings. Across the board, as what happened for Vinings in May, the Buckhead market improved for sales price (+24%), Days on Market (-10%), and Units Sold (+5%). Vinings only had 4 sales in June of this year, and 6 during the last one. (Must be something in the Chattahoochee for June sales.)
When it comes to the condominium / town home (attached) market , we have some mixed numbers. Depending on what statistics mean the most to you, the Buckhead Atlanta or Vinings attached market will be stronger in your opinion. If you look at sales price, Buckhead Atlanta again blows away Vinings. In the former, the average sales price increased by 44% while they decreased by 9% in Vinings. For units sold and average days on the market, Vinings retains the lead.
For more information about how to get your home sold for the most amount of money in the shortest period of time, please contact me at James.Kobal@BHHSGeorgia.com and (M) 678.993.4951. If just wondering about your home’s value, please click here.
STOP, SMILE:) Vinings vs. Buckhead – Updated July 10th – Vinings “Concern” Not Founded I thank a good friend at the Windy Hill Athletic Club for leading me to address their concerns about the Vinings single-family market, as the perception has been negative. STOP. SMILE 🙂 The market has improved, year-over-year. When it comes to units sold, you see a 3.5% increase of 28 to 29. Median sales took a major swing upwards of 25% from $674,000 to $790,000. Admittedly, the pure average sales price dropped by 4%, but an outlier can explain it. In 2018, the highest selling house was $2.7 million compared to $1.92 Million and thus a difference of 40%. Finally, Days on the Market experienced the same mixed percentages as the sales price. Median declined 10% from 41 to 37 days, but the average increased by 37% as one house took 337 days to sell in 2019 while the longest sale was 214 days in 2018. (Don’t ask me about re calibrating the Days on Market stat as some of these houses went on the market the previous year, for both 2018 and 2019.)
Smile 🙂 Turned the Corner – Recent activity in Buckhead Atlanta, as defined by the 30305 zip code appears to have stopped a worrisome trend. The trend through May accounted for a decline in sales, 18% year-over-year. The median declined by 2%, and the the only reason the pure average increased was because a $8 Million house sold while in 2018 the max sale was $3.9 million.
Vinings, by a hair, wins the contest for the stronger housing market, compared to Buckhead Atlanta (30305 zip code). Looking at the sales numbers for May of 2018 and 2019, Vinings performed slightly better. Clearly, Vinings outperformed Buckhead Atlanta in house sales. Both the number of units sold and average sales price increased. Even with just a 7.7% increase (1 unit) in houses sold, the average dramatically climbed 37.9% from $663,654 to $915,393. This sub-market was the only one to see an increase in both sales price and volume.
Buckhead Atlanta More Attractive for Condominium and Town Home Growth – Without question, Buckhead Atlanta surpasses Vinings for this sub-market in the way of activity, and demand. The number of units sold increased a whopping 23.2% (45 to 53 units) while the Days of Market positively fell 12%, 69 to 55 days. In Vinings, the demand for town homes and condominiums dropped 10%, even though the sales price increased by 12%($321,390 to $363,350). For Vinings, this result is not surprising as homebuyers looking in this location prefer a house with land.
Thank You for reading this article. For more questions, please contact me, James Kobal at 678.993.4951 or James.Kobal@BHHSGeorgia.com
Business Environment Spurs Growth and Renewal with Government Support
I Feel The Need for Speed…to Relocate to Atlanta. Atlanta 3rd Best Among Large Cities for First Time HomeBuyerrs – Reality is #1 Now if you look at the list about Atlanta has to offer compared to the two cities ranked higher, we are most definitely #1. Look at the great business climate in which to work, and corporate one for relocation. Add to the fact, Atlanta is one of the most popular tourist and convention destinations, we are the best. Last but not least, are the other cities really major ones?
Atlanta So Strong It Cannot Be Ignored by Competitor Cities: Originally published on June 14th, Atlanta’s attraction for being a top business destination in “which you want to work” attracted attention in the Midwest by a was noted this rely by the renowned Key Tower Ohio. It ranked Atlanta as the #1 city in which to work.
Public-Private Cooperation: The Atlanta Westide Future Fund is one of the best present embodiment of cooperation between the city government and private philanthropic support to spur Atlanta’s commercial and residential real estate development while protecting its current residents against real estate tax increases for – the next 20 years. SunTrust Bank, earlier this May donated $5 million to the fund. Ms. Ebony Ford, according to the Atlanta Business Chronicle on May 3rd, benefited from it.
I thank Tim Keane who said the Westside of Atlanta provides the best commercial and residential real estate investment opportunities and highlighted the private-public cooperation, at the Atlanta Design Fesitval’s “Thoughtful Development for a Sustainable Future” on June 4th 2019. He and Nathan Hedges said that Atlanta’s Westside provides the greatest opportunity for commercial real estate re-use. Therefore, we have only tapped the surface of the Westside Atlanta’s growth.
Such cooperation can be traced to a great relationship between Atlanta’s city hall and business sector, especially its Fortune 500 companies.
What does that mean for residential real estate? Midtown Atlanta continues to assert its position as the strongest sub-market, the prime area for Fortune 500 Companies relocation. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Georgia Properties is the best Midtown Atlanta real estate has been entrusted to serve the relocation of iconic Atlanta corporations.
Fortune 500 Companies: Atlanta’s Fortune 500 international business environment continues to grow. In its recent recent history, the Georgia Aquarium grew from the incredible collaboration between Atlanta May Shirley Franklin and one Home Depot Founder Bernie Marcus. Now, you have rejuvenation of the West Side of Atlanta with the other owner, Arthur Blank after he built the world renowned Mercedes-Benz stadium.
The private and government sector are always looking to collaborate to improve the city. Rarely, do hear about a perpetual dispute between the two parties. This cooperation has its origins in the Civil Rights Movement as the “City too busy too hate” and former Mayor Kasim Reed, “Cooperation is better than confrontation.”
Forget “Hotlanta.” New York City and Chicago are just as hot in July and August as Atlanta. Our winters are mild, and we do not suffer from the winter drudgery. Forget about statistics. Atlanta’s weather consistently changes, except for the summer.
Diversity of Neighborhoods
In Atlanta, as we continue to unify a city of transplants, we celebrate and visit the greatness of the uniqueness of each neighborhood. Each one has its own special feel that you can immediately experience. Look back to Atlanta’s origins and Buckhead Atlanta’s founder Henry Irby who founded it back in 1840 after moving here from South Carolina.
CHANGE THE MAIN ENTRANCE – Combine The Best of Buckhead Atlanta! Preserve the heritage of the neighborhood and simultaneously progress to meet the new needs of the neighborhood. Jamestown with Ponce City Market has already shown the ability to achieve this objective and we know its president Michael Phillips, a native Buckhead resident, will provide the same type of result. Obviously, he cares about the neighborhood, unlike the most recent owner Oliver McMillan who appears not to have done it. To its credit, it rescued the neighborhood as Ben Carter, another Buckhead native, ran into that roadblock of the Great Recession in 2008.
Already, the positive redefinition of Buckhead Atlanta can be seen in neighboring retail and multi-family projects on Peachtree and Pharr Roads. Going in the opposite direction, you have the Camden Paces Apartments on Roswell Road. Finally, as I started this essay, the West Village provides an example of what can be achieved and foundation for the continuity to preserve its heritage while progressing to meet the new and current demands of the neighborhood.
The iconic Henri’s Bakery proves that you can preserve the heritage and progress to a better location. Its new location does not have the same “character” as the old one, but it provides a more enjoyable experience.
Now that Jamestown Properties continues to ask for public input about changing The Shops Buckhead Atlanta, here is my opinion, originally posted on July 21st before the town hall meeting on the 24th, first of a few scheduled one. Change the main entrance to an area that combines the established Buckhead Village with the modern Buckhead Atlanta – E. Paces Ferry Road. Traveling on Peachtree to the current focal point of Buckhead Atlanta looks like a Berlin Wall. This vision came to me on June 5th as I walked E. Paces Ferry and recounted memories of when I ran there on Wednesday nights for marathon training runs with the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society. To the north was the good part of Buckhead Atlanta that was worth keeping and to the south, we looked the other way…Smile…Both the heritage and progressing Buckhead Atlanta are worth keeping. Just blend them.
One big hindrance remains for Buckhead Atlanta’s progress – traffic – especially – the lack of synchronized lights. Mayor Kasim Reed during some campaign adds in the 2010s recognized how much the lights impacted traffic. Then in November 2018, the Buckhead CID said it would be launching a study on the synchronized lights at the Buckhead Council of Neighborhoods and made a public announcement at Phipps Plaza.
As Buckhead Atlanta progresses, local business groups must merge both generations. Let me blunt, the Buckhead Business Association must redefine itself. With an emphasis on millennials and people new to the neighborhood, they are alienating natives and those who have lived here for at least 15 years. What is a compelling reason for these people to make a weekly commitment to the organization, especially when they have established the sources for their services in other organizations or institutions? The BBA needs them. They do not need it. Having leaders like those as Jamestown and and Gen Xers, the new leaders, who moved here in the ’90s will revitalize this once great organization. (What I am saying about the BBA is not unique to organizations. As I can personally attest, the CIA faced a similar situation, starting in the late 1970s.)
information confirms the fact that No. 2 Opus Place will be built. For the past
few months, real estate industry insiders have questioned me about the progress
of No. 2 Opus Place’s construction, in the heart of Midtown Atlanta. You will
see the site transform right before your eyes beginning next month. By 2021 The
completed luxury construction will take its place in the Atlanta skyline as the
tallest residential tower in the city and the 5th tallest building
overall in the city.
indications that construction is imminent:
Lane closures on 14th Street as heavy equipment is delivered to the site and final detonations readying the bedrock formation under the site for the foundation will occur.
Unfortunately the trees on 14th will need to be removed to provide ingress/egress to site for construction and cement trucks.
The large shoring walls will be constructed to hold back the dirt as the Developer prepares to pour the foundation.
For more sales information about No. 2 Opus Place, please contact me at 678.993.4951 and James.Kobal@BHHSGeorgia.com